Latest Intelligence
Three Things That Changed
Structural signals from the recorded periods, not live October news.
A cleaner power mix
40.91%Global clean share in 2024. Fossil generation still grew 1.69%.
Electric-car adoption
10% → 27%EU sales share, 2020–2025. Review outstanding; substitution unmeasured.
Industrial price reference
€183.70/MWhEU band-IC, 2025-H2, down from €194.10/MWh in 2024-H2. Heat parity unproved.
Signal boundaries and sources →
Thesis Tracker
H1 — Clean Power Displacement
Regional displacement; global structural decline unproved
Confidence: Low–medium for sustained global displacement
H2 — Solar + Battery System
Enabling deployment exists; the dispatchable-service mechanism is untested
Confidence: Low–medium
H3 — End-Use Electrification
Strengthening in passenger-car sales; broader substitution incomplete
Confidence: Medium–high for car adoption; low–medium for broad fossil substitution
H4 — Industrial Electrification
A concrete implementation case; general economics and geography unproved
Confidence: Very low–low for a demonstrated broad economic shift
H5 — Grid and Infrastructure Bottlenecks
Credible constraint watch; increasing dominance not established
Confidence: Low–medium
H6 — Materials Consequences
One concrete component/material link; broader strategic consequences unproved
Confidence: Low–medium
Evidence direction, uncertainty and what would change the view →
Explore by question
- Read the current deep dive → Clean Growth Ratio in Edition 001
- Decode K03, CGR, V/C and other codes → Glossary and indicators
- Understand mechanisms → Learning route
- Inspect support and counterevidence → Thesis tracker
- Find the next testable question → Sprint agenda
- Examine sources and updates → Open research references